The digital future marked by the rise in the cost of energy and raw materials.
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I've ended up with a title that's too serious to put in offtopic :ugly:, but here goes.
I've been following this blog for some time now, which basically focuses on how the arrival at peak oil (and the subsequent decline, of course) affects or can affect different fields, (especially the economic one).
A couple of days ago it published The digital future in which it announces the end of several things we were used to like Moore's law and some like "the cloud" that we've only just started to taste. Entertaining reading, especially forrealistslovers of catastrophic fables.Here it is, if anyone reads it, comment your opinion on the topic.
Salu2.
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It is entertaining to read, but it certainly seems too catastrophic to me. That there will continue to be crises and that each one will take part of the socio-economic, cultural and technological model of the moment is beyond any doubt. In fact, this is what has always happened and we have not returned to the Middle Ages because of it. But crises of all kinds (including plagues and wars) have also given rise to other types of advances, since one advances more with hunger than with a full stomach. The Second World War is a clear example of technological advances (radar, sonar, jet propulsion, rockets, ballistic missiles, cryptography, computing, nuclear energy, development of plastics, etc., etc.).
Many of the things he says are true, but reaching the physical limit of a technology does not imply disappearance but the need for a paradigm shift. Thus, transistor computing may perhaps receive the final blow with quantum computing or silicon and its difficulty of elaboration will possibly be killed by graphene.
I do not believe that technological evolution will stop because of this. Simply (the word simple is a way of saying) priorities will make human inventiveness and creativity develop along other paths. I believe that in all stages of history it has always been said that the existing model at that time was going to collapse and we would return to the Stone Age and, systematically, things happen that cause another evolutionary leap to occur. The problem is that predicting is very difficult... and predicting the future even more so.
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There is a detail that must be taken into account, and that is the viability of wells and the creation of new extraction techniques. With the extraction of unconventional oil from oil shale, Canada and the USA have become the main world reserves. The whole issue of Repsol and Argentina is due to this same reason, the extraction of the mega Vaca Muerta field...
The oil market is a cartel market, controlled by OPEC, and its members wanted to raise the price of crude oil to earn much more money with the same investment. Just look at the surplus that the Saudi government had in 2011, which doubled its revenue compared to forecasts (oil at 40 US$ per barrel vs oil at 100 US$ per barrel), but these price increases allow wells that were not profitable before to become profitable, so they lose a lot of control.
Is oil infinite? No, of course not, but we have been hearing about its imminent end for many years, and then the dates are postponed. I am much more concerned about the scarcity of rare earths, and their control by 95% in production by China, or that the production of tantalum capacitors uses a raw material that finances wars in central Africa, but that doesn't sell because most people don't understand what you are talking about.
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@lforos I see that you are techno-optimistic, but humanity has not always advanced forward, it has had its ups and downs, and just as always when we are in an economic crisis we say that we will learn so that they do not repeat, something that is clear is not working. It is also possible a setback in technology and social advances, of course it will never return to the stone age but... let's remember the middle ages. How would a society like that of the first half of the 18th century (pre-industrial revolution) with Internet be?
@kynes If the coltan war is serious, a sample to see how serious the situation is. The thing about China controlling the rare earth market is because the processing of these lands has a serious environmental impact and of course if the country is somewhat lax (to say something) in environmental policy it gets a price advantage and pulverizes the supply of other countries staying with the market.
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@lforos I see that you are techno-optimistic, but humanity has not always advanced forward, it has had its ups and downs, and just as always when we are in an economic crisis we say that we will learn so that they do not repeat, something that is clearly not working. It is also possible a setback in technology and social advances, of course it will never return to the stone age but... let's remember the middle ages. What would a society like the one in the first half of the 18th century (pre-industrial revolution) with the Internet be like?.
The Internet needs a lot of electricity. It could not be maintained in the circumstances you indicate.
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Internet would be possible, but very, very cut back, let's forget about large servers and monstrous farms, the good thing about the network is that it is decentralized and small servers very spread out could work with renewables. Or so I want to think, because if everything goes wrong the knowledge base that is the Internet will be more necessary than ever but it is clear that everything could not be saved, what knowledge to save? Is it worth living in a world without porn?
I have answered you in my previous post while you were commenting :wall: I am slow yes.
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I doubt a technologically apocalyptic future caused by the scarcity of materials, the industry has become expert at exploiting everything that is profitable, without reaching the point of depleting certain resources they will simply become unprofitable and will be replaced by others. I hope in more ecological and recyclable ways, yes I see a future where consumer electronics are much more reusable and environmentally friendly (in terms of energy consumption and recycling) because right now it is unsustainable.
In any case, we have reached a point where, for consumer electronics, the current advances are not really needed, nothing would happen because in a couple of years there would not be new, more powerful processors, the advances that exist are purely motivated by economic gain. In fact, if the production of processors were stopped, I believe there are enough to continue with people's usual tasks for years, and it would be beneficial on many levels...
And electronics as we know it will one day move to other levels, quantum processors, biological ones, the use of carbon for memories, biocompatible implants, etc. And the need for the resources that are currently used will become secondary.
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As expected in a hardware forum, I see that we are (including myself) techno-optimists, yours is already bordering on transhumanism, but let us always remember that imagination has no limits and technology does, on the other hand, I am not particularly thrilled about having brain implants, especially from the politicians and big companies we have today.
The attitude towards the future (3): the sects of the future | Innovadirectivos -
As you might expect in a hardware forum, I see that we are (including myself) techno-optimists. Your views border on transhumanism, but let's always remember that imagination has no limits, but technology does. On the other hand, I'm not particularly thrilled about having brain implants, especially from politicians and big companies we have today.
The attitude towards the future (3): the sects of the future | InnovadirectivosI'm very pro-cyberpunk :ugly: If advancements continue to these extremes, I see a very dark world like in fiction.
But I'm referring to things that already exist, not brain replacements... that's already being achieved today with advertising and information manipulation. Feasible things that have been tested for years like cameras for the blind that connect to the cerebral cortex or mechanical arms for amputees that connect to the nerves. Or more inconsequential things like augmented reality glasses, a biological processor, headphones that transmit sound through vibrations in the skin, an interface based on the electricity of the palm of the hand. These are things that will change the way we see computing, just as a couple of decades ago they were huge gadgets full of cables that were of little use and now they are small smartphones that serve almost for everything...
P.D. I'm not a technoptimist at all, I believe that these advancements do not provide solutions to humanity's real problems and will create more social problems. I also don't believe in transhumanism, at most it can be a patch or a tool for our body, not an improvement. But obviously I'm not a neo-Luddite.
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I'll stay calmer, anyway neoludism is not bad, it's the best way we have to avoid the awakening of skynet. Since catastrophic theories based on the Mayans are in fashion and looking at what the Popol Vuh says, the classic book of Mayan tradition, which recounts the myth of the rebellion of the tools against their owners, now that the fridge does your shopping on the Internet, the washing machine is programmed according to the dirtiness of the clothes and the TV that has always been the "dumb box" becomes smart every day we have it closer xD.
Doing honor to the situation of this offtopic branch as it deserves, I leave you an email that has been circulating on the Internet for years, it's possible that skynet begins in a pizzeria. Personally, I believe that telefónica in the 1004 has it much more advanced, but well.
ORDER A PIZZA
The correspondent from USA adds that this imaginary dialogue would be very funny... if things continue like this, this will become something absolutely real, and very soon...
OPERATOR: Thank you for calling New Pizza Hut. May I have your National Identification Number?
CLIENT: This... it's that I just want to order a pizza...
OPERATOR: But for that I must have your National Identification Number.
CLIENT: Well... my number is... wait... 610 2049998 – 45 – 54610.
OPERATOR: Thank you, Mr. Sheehan. I see that you live at #1742 of Meadowland Drive; your private phone is 494 2366 4942366, your office is at Lincoln Insurance with the phone 745 2302 745 2302, and your mobile is 266 2566 266 2566. And you are calling, I see, from your house.
CLIENT: It's really true... but where do you get all that information from?
OPERATOR: It's that we are connected to the “Instant.USA.Infonet”.
CLIENT: And what is that?
OPERATOR: The National Security System. That connection adds only 15 seconds to the time of each order. Well, what pizza do you want?
CLIENT: I would like two of your ‘All meat special pizza’
OPERATOR: I don't think it's a good idea, sir...
CLIENT: How? What do you say?
OPERATOR: Sir, your medical reports and other sensors indicate that you are hypertensive, and what's more, your cholesterol and triglycerides already double the acceptable values. The National Health Insurance does not authorize us to sell you something that constitutes for you a very dangerous choice.
CLIENT: But... and what do you recommend?
OPERATOR: The ideal for you would be our ‘Low fat’ soy pizza. I assure you that you will love it.
CLIENT: And why do you imagine that I might come to like it?
OPERATOR: It's that we see on the screen that last week you consulted in a public library the book: ‘Soy beans for the gourmet’. That's why I suggested the soy pizza.
CLIENT: Well, anyway... Send me two, family size.
OPERATOR: Perfect. That will be enough for you, for your wife and your two children. And the leftovers will serve to feed your two dogs... The total is 49.99 US $.
CLIENT: Well, take the number of my credit card...
OPERATOR: I'm sorry, sir. You will have to pay in cash. We see that your credit on the VISA card is totally exceeded.
CLIENT: Don't worry, when the pizza arrives I will have already returned from the ATM of my corner bank to withdraw the cash.
OPERATOR: I don't think it's possible, sir. You won't be able to withdraw it, because you have also already exceeded the limit of available cash.
CLIENT: Well, anyway. My wife confirms that she has the necessary cash at home. And we are hungry, how long will it take?
OPERATOR: We are a bit late, about 55 minutes approximately. I see that you are close, if you want you can pick them up personally, although I don't know if you feel like carrying pizzas on a motorcycle.
CLIENT: And how do you know that I won't go by car?
OPERATOR: It appears that, given that you were late in paying the installments, your car was seized by the seller two months ago. On the other hand, your Harley motorcycle is already paid for and you filled the tank yesterday afternoon.
CLIENT: But, why don't you go to hell itself, you just warmed up the pizzas there, and by the way, say hello to the devil?
OPERATOR: I advise you, sir, to moderate your language. I see that you were denounced by a traffic policeman 14 months ago for insulting him and... ah, yes... I see that a judge sentenced you to spend three months in prison for the same offense... And you came out two weeks ago... Are these the first pizzas you order since you were released?
CLIENT:.... ( speechless ).
OPERATOR: Anything else, sir?
CLIENT: Yes. I have a coupon for an offer that you give them a 2-liter Coca Cola with any order.
OPERATOR: I'm sorry, but our notice, in small print at the end, included a clause indicating that we are prohibited from selling soft drinks to diabetics, as the current Constitution indicates. And you appear in a recent check-up with a beginning of diabetes.
CLIENT:.... Well, look, cancel my order and you, by the way, shove the two pizzas where they fit.
OPERATOR: It's a shame that I can't please you, but I am a robot-computer and I lack orifices. Have a good day and thank you for calling New Pizza Hut.
IN “Terminator: The Sarah Connors Chronicle” Sarah herself saves the world from the exterminators (Terminators) ends with this phrase: “The future advances towards us in the form of a dark road, for the first time I face it with a sense of hope, because if a machine, the terminator, can learn the value of human life... maybe we can too.
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about the topic of skynet that I don't know if any of us will ever see, there is a question that has always caught my attention. In principle, we use our time more or less in the following way: we rest, we produce, we consume, leisure. Machines don't rest and only consume to produce but... and leisure? We can entertain ourselves by playing a game of chess, but the machine already knows the mathematical result. If the book was: Do androids dream of electric sheep, the question is hypothetically: what would their leisure be? Hunting humans or taking them for a walk in the park
regards -
Skynet is pure science fiction, artificial intelligence currently does not exist and human intelligence has been scarce for a long time... there are more chances of losing intelligence than of creating new one. As a certain Carrascal once said, we want to go to Mars to search for intelligent life when we have not yet found it on Earth.
Another thing is the simulation of intelligence, such as the Siri of an iPhone. But imitating something is not creating it, human intelligence can be imitated a lot, but a machine will always be a machine with the impossibility of questioning itself.
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speaking of AI. what is the shooter with the best AI that you have played recently.
regards
on the subject in question, a long time ago I read something about organic computers, it's not this:Science to the last.: ORGANIC COMPUTERS but it gives a distant idea, I think it was in Very Interesting at least 10 years ago. and I really don't think we are looking for a 100% effective AI, it wouldn't make sense to create intelligent machines on one hand and on the other choose to elect some rulers ¿idiots? ¿or not? -
speaking of AI. what is the shooter with the best AI that you have played recently.
regards
on the subject in question, a long time ago I read something about organic computers, it's not this:Ciencia a la última.: ORGANIC COMPUTERS but it gives a distant idea, I think it was in Muy Interesante at least 10 years ago. and I really don't think we are looking for a 100% effective AI, it wouldn't make sense to create intelligent machines on one hand and on the other choose to have rulers who are ¿idiots? or what?
regardsFranziskaner, on the subject of idiot rulers, there will always be people who think that the ruler is an idiot, because they confuse idiocy with a difference of opinions. The beauty of politics is that there are very different points of view, so the perfect ruler does not exist.
In I, Robot, in the last short story (or chapter, if you want to see it that way) you see a future where robots try to be perfect rulers. Not everyone agrees, and there are disputes between regions. It has always happened, and it will always happen, the only thing that can be achieved is a less bad situation, but the perfect situation does not exist.
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Franziskaner, on the topic of idiot rulers, there will always be people who think the ruler is an idiot, because they confuse idiocy with a difference of opinions. The beauty of politics is that there are very different points of view, so the perfect ruler does not exist.
In I, Robot, in the last short story (or chapter, if you want to see it that way) we see a future in which robots try to be perfect rulers. Not everyone agrees, and there are disputes between regions. It has always happened, and it will always happen, the only thing that can be achieved is a less bad situation, but the perfect situation does not exist.
no if that's something I already know: us, a perfect world, Fahrenheit 451, erewhon, walden2, utopia
a map of the world that does not include Utopia is not even worth glancing at. Oscar Wilde
great contribution to culture and science by Isaac Asimov creator of the three laws of robotics.
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Let's not mix fiction with reality, they rarely coincide.
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Continuing with the topic of rare earths, what demands the most lithium is battery manufacturing, which is one of the biggest problems we have today.
Donald Sadoway, along with a group of MIT students, sponsored by the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation (things are looking serious), announced earlier this year a battery that will supposedly hit the market in about two years, and that will have more capacity and less wear, in addition to not contaminating (all very beautiful if), the issue is that according to what I read at the time it will have three liquid metals being the main one aluminum, the problem is that I have not found any mention that clarifies under what chemical formulation the aluminum will be to be liquid and much less what the other two metals will be, has anyone read anything about this lately?
If a battery can be manufactured with materials that are found in abundance, that has no memory effect and high capacity it would be a major boost to solar energy, wind energy and the electric car. -
Well... objectively lithium does not belong to the rare earths.
It's funny about the Mayans and 2012... Surely in the year 9999 someone will say that the end of everything is approaching because the computer scientists of the 20th century only put four digits for the year and some enlightened person will think that we did it because we knew that on December 31, 9999, the world was going to end...
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@lforos I see that you are techno-optimistic, but humanity has not always advanced forward, it has had its ups and downs, and just as we always say when we are in an economic crisis that we will learn so that they do not repeat, something that is clearly not working. It is also possible a setback in technology and social advances, of course we will never return to the Stone Age but... let's remember the Middle Ages. How would a society like that of the first half of the 18th century (pre-industrial revolution) with the Internet be?
Obviously if you look at a short period of time there are always steps forward and back, but expanding the framework humanity has always advanced forward... faster or slower... in some places more and in others less... but it has always advanced (technological advancement, well-being, leisure, life expectancy, infant mortality,...).
The only thing that I think can stop this line is the irreparable destruction of natural resources that could indeed collapse the system. And I am not referring to rare earths or oil, for which alternatives are sure to be found. I am referring to more trivial things like the atmosphere or drinking water.
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Surely in the year 9999 someone will say that the end of everything is approaching because the computer scientists of the 20th century put only four digits for the year and some enlightened person will think that we did it because we knew that on December 31, 9999, the world was going to end …
hahahaha very good that lforos XD
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